Mortgage and refinancing rate today, April 2
Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates fell again slightly yesterday. They have increased significantly over the past month. But they have fallen on six of the last nine working days.
The much better-than-expected March employment figures this morning could normally revive the markets. But most are closed today for Good Friday. However, the bond markets are open until noon (ET). And they are the ones most closely associated with mortgage rates.
Unfortunately, it seems they are likely to respond positively to these employment figures. And that means mortgage rates could rise slightly today or maybe stay stable.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest news on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
Although there are a few small clouds in the sky, the weather still looks favorable for an economic recovery and boom. And that almost inevitably means higher mortgage rates for a while.
My personal rate foreclosure recommendations therefore remain:
- LOCK if the closure 7 days
- LOCK if the closure 15 days
- LOCK if the closure 30 days
- LOCK if the closure 45 days
- LOCK if the closure 60 days
But I don’t pretend to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out as good as mine, if not better. You can therefore choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Most of the markets are closed today. So here’s a look at the situation this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET) just for the bond market which deals in 10-year US Treasury bonds. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:
- The 10-year Treasury bill yield increased from 1.70% to 1.72% (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to track these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently.
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Warnings about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are generally right. But our accuracy record won’t hit its former high levels until things calm down.
Therefore, only use the markets as a guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to lean on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today appear likely to rise or perhaps remain stable. Just be aware that intraday fluctuations (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature at this time.
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you should know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
- Only “$ 2op-tier” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?
The official monthly employment report is arguably the most important of all economic reports. And this morning’s, which covered March, was much better than expected.
The non-farm payroll increased by 916,000 that month and the unemployment rate fell to 6%. Analysts polled by Dow Jones had estimated an increase in non-farm payrolls of 675,000. That would have been pretty impressive. But the higher number suggests that the economic recovery is well underway.
And, if these numbers continue to hold up, higher mortgage rates to come are very likely. So will they hold on?
Probably. But COVID-19 infection rates are now increasing in many places, with Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania among the hardest-hit states. If things get worse before the immunization schedule can avoid further increases, we might see the recovery delayed. And that could create a lull in rising mortgage rates.
Overall, I still expect the recovery to come more or less on time. But there is a chance that it will be delayed long enough that we will see a plateau or even a drop in the mortgage rate chart.
For more information on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).
Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But the rates then went up. And Freddie’s April 1 report puts that weekly average at 3.18% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from 3.17% the week before.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. The Fannies were updated on March 17 and the MBAs on March 22. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts. Its figures date from January 10 and seem clearly out of date:
|Forecaster||T2 / 21||Q3 / 21||T4 / 21||T1 / 22|
|Freddie mac||3.0%||3.0%||3.0%||N / A|
However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening of the gap as the year progresses.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. And you can probably still find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. Just shop more widely.
But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparisons regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:
Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an advertisement for any products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, its parent company or its affiliates.