Warm Wednesday for the most part, rain for St. Patrick’s Day
Tuesday’s high temperatures were quite impressive! Not just because we hit a high of 72 degrees in Sicklerville (Camden County). But because the sea breeze kept Harvey Cedars (LBI, Ocean County) 20 degrees cooler at 52.
The heat continues on Wednesday. But the land breeze will be even more important.
The rain moves in Thursday, resulting in a duller and cooler day. And then the temps go back and forth between the 50s and near 70s over the weekend.
Yet every temperature I’m about to list is above normal for mid-March.
Another spring day: mostly sunny, dry and warm. Most of New Jersey will reach around 65 to 70 degrees. Roll down those windows and enjoy the sun!
The only wrinkle is the introduction of a light southeasterly breeze on Wednesday afternoon. For coastal communities, this wind will blow from the cold ocean. (The water temperature is currently 42-45 degrees – typical for mid-March.) So temperatures can dip into the 50s (at best) later. Cool jacket weather.
Clouds will begin to rise Wednesday evening. And we could see a rain shower creeping in at dawn on Thursday morning. Low temperatures will stay well above freezing, in the mid-40s or so.
Cooler, cloudier and more humid. Not the big St. Patrick’s Day prediction. But not a “total washout” either.
Everyone in New Jersey will likely get wet at some point, with occasional rain showers spreading across the state throughout Thursday.
For southern and coastal counties, rainfall could be steady or heavy for some time. A few integrated thunderstorms may even form. The best chance for this improvement would be in the afternoon.
Total rainfall is tricky. The NAM model went crazy with the idea of heavier rains, putting the forecast at 2 inches. While I wouldn’t rule out heavy downpours, I don’t think we’ll be sucked into moisture rich enough for such solid precipitation. Half an inch seems like a better bet, with regions to the north and west seeing much less.
It is important to note: The risk of winter weather is nil. And the threat of severe weather and/or flooding is minimal.
High temperatures will return to the mid 50s on Thursday given the gloomy conditions.
The hottest day of the week. With a return to partly sunny skies, highs will reach 70 degrees in the NJ interior. The immediate coast will be cooler, with a traditional sea breeze. The weather will stay dry and the winds will stay light making for another great day.
It’s hard to get an idea of what Saturday will look like. An area of low pressure will approach New Jersey from the Great Lakes, introducing our next chance for rain. Again, these raindrops aren’t incredibly impressive. Just a few clouds and humid weather.
Temperatures for Saturday are tricky. It looks like even with the rain we’ll generally end up on the warm side, in the 60s. So hopefully you can squeeze in some outdoor activity if the rain stops – which seems likely at the end of the month. afternoon.
Sunday and beyond
Sunday will be the brightest and driest, but windiest and coolest day of the weekend. A partial clearing will accompany a strong westerly wind, which can blow in excess of 20 mph. Outside of summer, westerly winds are generally a “cool” wind. So I’m expecting temps to only hit the mid 50s around Sunday afternoon. But as I mentioned at the top of this article, it remains above the long-term average from mid-March to the end of March.
Monday is looking good, sunny and windy with temperatures closer to 60. But the rest of next week has a “choppy” trend. A series of pulses will bring periods of rain to New Jersey from late Tuesday through early Friday. We will try to better understand these impacts (thunderstorms against showers, temperatures, overcast skies) next week.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.
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